A Forgotten Effects Approach to the Analysis of Complex Economic Systems: Identifying Indirect Effects on Trade Networks

The purpose of this paper is to identify the emergence indirect trade flows prompted by export interaction world’s economies. Using data on exports from United Nations Conference Trade and Development (UNCTAD) for period 2016–2021, we construct an international network which analyzed through “forgotten effects theory” that identifies tuples countries with origin, intermediary countries, a destination. This approach intends spotlight something beyond analysis direct identification second third-order paths. using both analyses, as well forgotten effect approaches, show presents hub-and-spoke behavior in contrast most extant research finding core-periphery structure. structure then comprised three almost separated networks hub country bridges commerce between those networks. contribution article move forward other works utilize networks, including econometric nature—such ones based gravity models—by incorporating relationships could provide distinctive novel insights into study economic